Lately, I have been reading about revolutions
that have happened in recent centuries; and I have referenced a paper published
in the January issue of First Things. The title of the paper is “The Road to
Revolution,” by Stanley G. Payne, an Emeritus Professor of History at the
University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Dr.
Payne points out that “Revolution is not generally provoked by deteriorating
conditions; rathe, complaints tend to increase after conditions have already
begun to improve. The regime destroyed by a revolution is almost always better
than the one that came immediately before it, and experience teaches us that
the most hazardous moment for a bad government is normally when it is beginning
to reform.” Once people begin to think of reforming their government, some new
crisis or setback, which may or may not be important in itself, can trigger
revolution.
A
good example of this phenomenon is the French Revolution of 1798. The absolutist
government of Louis XIV provoked less resentment than did the milder rule of
Louis XVI. Other examples of this revolutional reaction can be seen in Russia,
Venezuela, Italy, Germany, Argentina, and Cuba. Those nations began to
experience better governments at first; and later they deteriorated into
autocratic regimes. Most of them evolved through socialist governments prior to
developing a fascist government.
Revolutions
from a relatively weak regime are often bloodless, nonviolent revolutions at
first. However, as time goes by, the revolutionary process leads to greater
radicalization and greater carnage, sometimes involving a foreign war.
The
Spanish revolution of 1931-1939 is a good model to study this classic example
of a national civil uprising/revolution. Spain had created the first liberal
democratic system in the country’s history, with, at first, impartial elections
based on universal suffrage and broad constitutional guarantees of civil
rights. This achievement did not prevent revolution and civil war. Conflict
arose because leftist groups demanded total control of the government; and conservative
groups (largely Catholic) resisted. As more force from the left developed, a
group of “anti-fascist” radicals caused violence and mayhem in the nation. At
first, they used democratic means to grab power and insert their adherents into
government positions, but when that became less effective against the
conservatives, they resorted to extreme violence.
We,
in America, are seeing what this process may be developing into. Violence by left wing groups that even use the
same name as the revolutionaries in Spain, e.g., “anti-fascists” (or ANTIFA, as
we know it here in the U.S.) seek to grab power by violent means. Many of these
groups which claim to be socialists, look more like anarchists to me.
It
is interesting to see that these left-sided groups which have attained control
of their several nations mentioned above eventually consolidate power in a central
government that is subsequently identified as fascist—the very group against
which the revolution was aimed in the first place!
Here
in America, we are experienced civil unrest. It is happening in a nation that has
very recently been enjoying economic prosperity. In 2019, the unemployment rate
fell to a low of 3.4%, the lowest since 1968. The unemployment rate has
presently risen to 6.7%, but that is still better than the rate posted by the
Obama years. During the Trump years, median household income increased by
$6000/year. However, it must be observed that some of that improvement has been
partly offset by increases in the cost of education and shelter. By many
measures, however, America is in better shape economically that it was under
the Obama administration. All this, despite the cries from government leaders
and the media that the U.S. is going to the dogs economically.
As noted
above, good economic times and fair civil regulations do not, in themselves, portend
peaceful conditions. I sincerely hope that America will settle down and enjoy
good times without forces such as ANTIF and Black Lives Matter causing
disruption. 😐
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