The Development of Revolutions

Lately, I have been reading about revolutions that have happened in recent centuries; and I have referenced a paper published in the January issue of First Things. The title of the paper is “The Road to Revolution,” by Stanley G. Payne, an Emeritus Professor of History at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

        Dr. Payne points out that “Revolution is not generally provoked by deteriorating conditions; rathe, complaints tend to increase after conditions have already begun to improve. The regime destroyed by a revolution is almost always better than the one that came immediately before it, and experience teaches us that the most hazardous moment for a bad government is normally when it is beginning to reform.” Once people begin to think of reforming their government, some new crisis or setback, which may or may not be important in itself, can trigger revolution. 

        A good example of this phenomenon is the French Revolution of 1798. The absolutist government of Louis XIV provoked less resentment than did the milder rule of Louis XVI. Other examples of this revolutional reaction can be seen in Russia, Venezuela, Italy, Germany, Argentina, and Cuba. Those nations began to experience better governments at first; and later they deteriorated into autocratic regimes. Most of them evolved through socialist governments prior to developing a fascist government.

        Revolutions from a relatively weak regime are often bloodless, nonviolent revolutions at first. However, as time goes by, the revolutionary process leads to greater radicalization and greater carnage, sometimes involving a foreign war.

        The Spanish revolution of 1931-1939 is a good model to study this classic example of a national civil uprising/revolution. Spain had created the first liberal democratic system in the country’s history, with, at first, impartial elections based on universal suffrage and broad constitutional guarantees of civil rights. This achievement did not prevent revolution and civil war. Conflict arose because leftist groups demanded total control of the government; and conservative groups (largely Catholic) resisted. As more force from the left developed, a group of “anti-fascist” radicals caused violence and mayhem in the nation. At first, they used democratic means to grab power and insert their adherents into government positions, but when that became less effective against the conservatives, they resorted to extreme violence.

        We, in America, are seeing what this process may be developing into.  Violence by left wing groups that even use the same name as the revolutionaries in Spain, e.g., “anti-fascists” (or ANTIFA, as we know it here in the U.S.) seek to grab power by violent means. Many of these groups which claim to be socialists, look more like anarchists to me.

        It is interesting to see that these left-sided groups which have attained control of their several nations mentioned above eventually consolidate power in a central government that is subsequently identified as fascist—the very group against which the revolution was aimed in the first place!

        Here in America, we are experienced civil unrest. It is happening in a nation that has very recently been enjoying economic prosperity. In 2019, the unemployment rate fell to a low of 3.4%, the lowest since 1968. The unemployment rate has presently risen to 6.7%, but that is still better than the rate posted by the Obama years. During the Trump years, median household income increased by $6000/year. However, it must be observed that some of that improvement has been partly offset by increases in the cost of education and shelter. By many measures, however, America is in better shape economically that it was under the Obama administration. All this, despite the cries from government leaders and the media that the U.S. is going to the dogs economically.

        As noted above, good economic times and fair civil regulations do not, in themselves, portend peaceful conditions. I sincerely hope that America will settle down and enjoy good times without forces such as ANTIF and Black Lives Matter causing disruption. 😐  

         

   

 

 

 

The Portland Protests

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Civil Unrest—The Portland Protests

22 January 2021

In the city of Portland, Oregon nightly violence, vandalism, and looting have been going on for 79 nights. The violence has spread to other cities around the United States; and protests have even been staged in cities of Europe. All this mayhem was supposedly started as a protest against racism and was sparked by the police killing of George Floyd on May 25^th. However, rioters have included people who are protesting a variety of issues, e.g., immigration rights, homelessness, racism, police accountability, and free speech. The protests have not had any visible leadership—disorganization has prevailed.

 

The violence is being supported by the Black Lives Matter organization and antifa movement. The NAACP and various news sources have been vocal in supporting the movement. Wikipedia reports that as of 5 July 2020, 29 people have been killed—25 were from gunshot wounds. Many lesser injuries have been incurred.

 

City administrators have had varying attitudes toward the violence; and Republicans have been vocal in accusing Democrat mayors and city governments of refusing to quell the violence. President Trump has repeatedly protested the violence, and he recently sent federal law keepers into Portland to protect federal buildings from destruction and fire. His efforts were strongly opposed by Portland’s Democrat mayor, and Democrats around the country have protested federal interference. Presidential candidate Joe Biden has commented on the violence by saying, “There is no reason for the President to send federal troops into a city where people are demanding change peacefully and respectfully.” Well…I would say that I doubt these protests are “peaceful and respectful.”

 

It seems to me that the time is long past when legitimate protesting has been the character of the activity. Anarchy seems to be the guiding principle of these protests; and only destruction of property and destruction of peaceful local government seems to be the general goal.

 

One movement in the protests has been a widespread demand to defund the police departments in order to prevent further police violence against people of color. This movement has caused city governments to pull police patrols off the streets in some very violent neighborhoods; and that regulation has predictably caused an uptick in crime. A Wall Street Journal analysis of crime statistics among the nation’s 50 largest cities found that reported homicides were up 24% so far this year, to 3,612. Shootings and gun violence also rose, even though many other violent crimes such as robbery fell. The homicide rate is up because violent criminals have been emboldened by the sidelining of police and the emptying out of jails and prisons due to the protests and because jurisdictions have been trying to limit the spread of covid-19 infection in crowded prisons according to analysts and law-enforcement officials in several cities. Though many of America’s biggest cities noting this increase in homicide are run by Democrats, the rise in killings is a bipartisan problem. Homicides are rising at a double-digit rate in most of the big cities run by Republicans, also, including Miami, San Diego, Omaha, Tulsa, Okla., and Jacksonville, Fla. Two major cities run by Independents, San Antonio and Las Vegas are also seeing increasing rates of homicide. Much of the increase in homicide is being seen in parts of these cities that are not involved in rioting. In Portland, for instance, the police department did not see any homicides around protests in July, a department spokeswoman said. Through June, its latest crime maps show, all of its homicides happened east and south of the city center.

 

I think the time has passed when simple and nonintrusive means should be used to control the violence. Removal of federal soldiers from Portland does not seem to have helped the situation. Despite pleas from local city officials for the removal of those troops, city resources do not seem able to control the damage.  It seems to me that police protection should be increased—not decreased. There is a time when force is needed to make America’s cities safe and livable. Police departments around the country are noting a decrease in applicants for police service. That is understandable. After all, who wants to work in a police department that is not supported by city governments which do not support police activity in controlling crime and violence?