The Development of Revolutions

Lately, I have been reading about revolutions that have happened in recent centuries; and I have referenced a paper published in the January issue of First Things. The title of the paper is “The Road to Revolution,” by Stanley G. Payne, an Emeritus Professor of History at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

        Dr. Payne points out that “Revolution is not generally provoked by deteriorating conditions; rathe, complaints tend to increase after conditions have already begun to improve. The regime destroyed by a revolution is almost always better than the one that came immediately before it, and experience teaches us that the most hazardous moment for a bad government is normally when it is beginning to reform.” Once people begin to think of reforming their government, some new crisis or setback, which may or may not be important in itself, can trigger revolution. 

        A good example of this phenomenon is the French Revolution of 1798. The absolutist government of Louis XIV provoked less resentment than did the milder rule of Louis XVI. Other examples of this revolutional reaction can be seen in Russia, Venezuela, Italy, Germany, Argentina, and Cuba. Those nations began to experience better governments at first; and later they deteriorated into autocratic regimes. Most of them evolved through socialist governments prior to developing a fascist government.

        Revolutions from a relatively weak regime are often bloodless, nonviolent revolutions at first. However, as time goes by, the revolutionary process leads to greater radicalization and greater carnage, sometimes involving a foreign war.

        The Spanish revolution of 1931-1939 is a good model to study this classic example of a national civil uprising/revolution. Spain had created the first liberal democratic system in the country’s history, with, at first, impartial elections based on universal suffrage and broad constitutional guarantees of civil rights. This achievement did not prevent revolution and civil war. Conflict arose because leftist groups demanded total control of the government; and conservative groups (largely Catholic) resisted. As more force from the left developed, a group of “anti-fascist” radicals caused violence and mayhem in the nation. At first, they used democratic means to grab power and insert their adherents into government positions, but when that became less effective against the conservatives, they resorted to extreme violence.

        We, in America, are seeing what this process may be developing into.  Violence by left wing groups that even use the same name as the revolutionaries in Spain, e.g., “anti-fascists” (or ANTIFA, as we know it here in the U.S.) seek to grab power by violent means. Many of these groups which claim to be socialists, look more like anarchists to me.

        It is interesting to see that these left-sided groups which have attained control of their several nations mentioned above eventually consolidate power in a central government that is subsequently identified as fascist—the very group against which the revolution was aimed in the first place!

        Here in America, we are experienced civil unrest. It is happening in a nation that has very recently been enjoying economic prosperity. In 2019, the unemployment rate fell to a low of 3.4%, the lowest since 1968. The unemployment rate has presently risen to 6.7%, but that is still better than the rate posted by the Obama years. During the Trump years, median household income increased by $6000/year. However, it must be observed that some of that improvement has been partly offset by increases in the cost of education and shelter. By many measures, however, America is in better shape economically that it was under the Obama administration. All this, despite the cries from government leaders and the media that the U.S. is going to the dogs economically.

        As noted above, good economic times and fair civil regulations do not, in themselves, portend peaceful conditions. I sincerely hope that America will settle down and enjoy good times without forces such as ANTIF and Black Lives Matter causing disruption. 😐